New year new market DOWNTREND

The market has been down the past four trading sessions, not a good way to start off the year.  Both the S&P500 and NASDAQ are trading below their 50 day moving average.

Today the market dropped nearly 2% and has well over 7 distribution days- that’s periods of heavy selling taking place in the past 5 weeks.  Despite the Santa Claus rally and the market making record highs, the status has actually been “uptrend under pressure” since December 12, 2014.

My opinion is that this is more about the state of the global economy than about the price of oil.  Today 10 year Treasuries hit 2.04%, that’s a sure sign of fear.  In modern times, Treasuries have only been lower in 2012.

Watch to see if the S&P500 can stay above 2016.  If not, 1972 is the next stop on the way to the 200 day moving average at ~1955.

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