Ukraine Invasion…war is profitable

Today’s Russia Ukraine Invasion “buy the rumor, sell the news” relief rally doesn’t surprise me for several reasons, the largest factor being that war is very profitable. Here’s another cynical fact, Russia has a tendency to “annex” its neighbors: Crimea 2014, Georgia 2008 and I’m even old enough to personally remember Czechoslovakia 1968.  I don’tContinue reading “Ukraine Invasion…war is profitable”

Anemic economy will shackle FED

The Stock Market has started out the year horribly, in fact, the worst ever.  The selloff is due to the double whammy of Omicron and fears about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Neither issues concern me.  Omicron is clearly dissipating (epicenter UK has lifted restrictions) and the FED can’t significantly raise interest rates becauseContinue reading “Anemic economy will shackle FED”

Sky is falling as interest rates rise

Happy New Year The stock market is starting out the year as it will likely end…volatile and profitable. Today there was a continued sell off in the Market as the 10 Year Treasury rose above 1.8%.  I’m not sure why rising interest rates are such a surprise to anyone.  Despite the volatility, quality companies areContinue reading “Sky is falling as interest rates rise”

Record INFECTIONS…Record S&P 500

Worldwide infections for COVID are at record highs, as is the S&P 500. The RUSSELL 2000 (Small Cap index) is still lagging behind its November 8th high, but that’s where I continue to see the greater opportunity.  The “riskier” Small Cap stocks and those favored from an eventual global reopening present the best growth opportunitiesContinue reading “Record INFECTIONS…Record S&P 500”

FED new policy…same as the old policy

I know it’s fashionable to be worried about the stock market.  I’m not. One of the main emotional drivers is that the Federal Reserve has tightened its monetary policy and that interest rates are going up. Attached is a chart of the FED Funds rate going back to 1954.  The RED line indicates estimated interestContinue reading “FED new policy…same as the old policy”