September Stock Market Selloff? 220903

You’ve probably already seen the headlines: September is the worst month of the year for stocks. True, but how significant? Not much. The below chart illustrates that over the past six years, two years were down (~-3.5%) and the other four years where either flat or up.  There is a seasonal pattern that implies underperformanceContinue reading “September Stock Market Selloff? 220903”

Resilience of Long Term Moving Average 220815

It’s been a challenging year for the Stock Market.  The attention seeking Media was happy to point out that the “S&P 500 suffered its worst first half of a year since 1970.” Less reported is the fact that following the dismal 1970 first half decline, the S&P 500 bounced 33% from the low to finishContinue reading “Resilience of Long Term Moving Average 220815”

IMPORTANT: shift in monetary policy narrative 220620

This is IMPORTANT…but I’m being redundant because everything I blog about is important, otherwise I wouldn’t blog about it. The Federal Reserve is starting to walk back its tough talk on fighting inflation with higher interest rates.  As I’ve previously mentioned, tightening monetary policy won’t pump any Oil, nor grow any Wheat.  The recent dramaticContinue reading “IMPORTANT: shift in monetary policy narrative 220620”

Cynical Realpolitik 220612

The selloff late last week put an end to what could have been a three-week recovery.  Stocks started to collapsed ahead of the May inflation report, which was “higher than expected”.  Expectations are much like “policy”, both can change very abruptly.  I’m less concerned about inflation than most, because I believe that the current inflationContinue reading “Cynical Realpolitik 220612”