Double Bottom test of June Low 220925

The S&P 500 is currently forming a double bottom pattern, testing the June 16th low. NOTE- in a previous post, I stated:  “…the odds of a drop all the way back down to the low is HIGHLY unlikely.”  That was based on the 50% retracement which had taken place in August. Three quick points- “HIGHLYContinue reading “Double Bottom test of June Low 220925”

September Stock Market Selloff? 220903

You’ve probably already seen the headlines: September is the worst month of the year for stocks. True, but how significant? Not much. The below chart illustrates that over the past six years, two years were down (~-3.5%) and the other four years where either flat or up.  There is a seasonal pattern that implies underperformanceContinue reading “September Stock Market Selloff? 220903”

IMPORTANT: shift in monetary policy narrative 220620

This is IMPORTANT…but I’m being redundant because everything I blog about is important, otherwise I wouldn’t blog about it. The Federal Reserve is starting to walk back its tough talk on fighting inflation with higher interest rates.  As I’ve previously mentioned, tightening monetary policy won’t pump any Oil, nor grow any Wheat.  The recent dramaticContinue reading “IMPORTANT: shift in monetary policy narrative 220620”

SUPPORT at Long Term Average 220528

The 7 week losing streak was broken this week, with significant moves higher by all indexes.  This is encouraging because often the Markets move lower ahead of a long holiday weekend.  It’s also encouraging because the move higher occurred without an announcement of material good news.  In fact, the news is just dreadful- no endContinue reading “SUPPORT at Long Term Average 220528”