The S&P 500 has been faltering for the past three sessions and is back near mid-April levels. For now it’s range bound between the upper 200 day moving average and the lower 50dma. Flip a coin to determine if the market will breakout or breakdown from here.
Here’s my assessment of the current situation:
- Second Wave of outbreaks as economies reopen
- Declining corporate earnings
- Depression level unemployment
- Food shortages
- Points blame at China and increases rhetoric about tariffs, reparations, and economic de-linking.
- Investors develop amnesia about recent Stimulus intervention and demand more SPENDING.
What I find interesting is that today’s levels are similar to the peaks seen in Jan 2018, Sep 2018 & Jun 2019. Back then the FEAR was Trade War, Tariffs, Impeachment…ultimately none of that static mattered and the Market went on to set new record highs.
I remain cynically hopeful for another dip, to be used as a long term buying opportunity.
FYI- watch for the next episode of the Wealthsteading Podcast, #312 will be informative & FUN !!!