Post-election rally likely to fizzle

I don’t expect this post-election rally to last.  More than anything, I think the rally is a convergence of certainty, sector rotation and short covering.  The global economy is facing many critical issues, none of which will easily be fixed by one US president.

Yes the economy will be spurred along by Trump’s likely tax cuts and deficit spending as it was during the Reagan administration.  BUT…note the below chart.  After Reagan was elected in 1980 there was a brief relief rally, then the market topped and within 10 months it was down nearly 20% from the post-election euphoria.

I won’t be surprised if history repeats itself.  For now, I’ll let things settle down before I very strategically jump back in.

sp500-1980-election-161113

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