Sold DBA & Bought BOTZ

Back in December 2016, inflation and interest rates were likely on the rise.  Most commodity prices had recovered from their lows at the start of the year, especially Oil.  With rising petroleum costs, I postulated that perhaps Agriculture commodities would finally find a bottom.  So as a speculative hedge, I purchased DBA, an agriculture ETF.Continue reading “Sold DBA & Bought BOTZ”

It took oil 23 years to exceed its nominal peak

Are you waiting for oil to bounce back to its peak of 2008?  You could be waiting a long time. In the below chart, I juxtaposed the price of oil from May 2004-Jan 2016 (in black, top section of chart) above the price of oil from Jan 1977-May 2004 (in gray, bottom section of chart).Continue reading “It took oil 23 years to exceed its nominal peak”

S&P500 down 2.5% year-to-date

The S&P500 is down 2.5% year-to-date and has lost support at all the key levels- 50, 100 & 200dma.  Is the global secular slowdown finally effecting the US stock market or is this simply another temporary meltdown ahead of the FOMC meeting?  (Whereby the markets shoot up after the Fed postpones a rate hike.) IContinue reading “S&P500 down 2.5% year-to-date”