FED new policy…same as the old policy

I know it’s fashionable to be worried about the stock market.  I’m not. One of the main emotional drivers is that the Federal Reserve has tightened its monetary policy and that interest rates are going up. Attached is a chart of the FED Funds rate going back to 1954.  The RED line indicates estimated interestContinue reading “FED new policy…same as the old policy”

RUSSELL2000 dips below 200dma

For the first time in over a year, the RUSSELL 2000 (Small Cap Index) broke below its 200 day-moving-average.  The insolvency of Evergrande (China’s second largest real estate developer) is being blamed for the calamity, but I don’t think there will be a contagion.  China’s problems are much larger than Evergrande, and I believe theContinue reading “RUSSELL2000 dips below 200dma”

FED policy shift PANIC…buying opportunity?

Hopefully you’re enjoying the start of the summer and not paying attention to the latest Media drama that’s spinning a false narrative about a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. This week’s scheduled FED FOMC meeting was touted as a lynchpin event for managing inflationary pressures.  Legendary commodity trader Paul Tudor JonesContinue reading “FED policy shift PANIC…buying opportunity?”

The economy is going to run HOT

There are LOTs of people fearful of a BIG stock market correction.  They’re paranoid for several reasons, one of which is that the Market has run up so much lately.  I can’t predict the future, but experience (over 35 years of investing) tells me that given current market conditions, a correction would be a buyingContinue reading “The economy is going to run HOT”

FED rate cut- Panic or Prosper?

Today the FED announced a long anticipated rate cut and the postponement of Quantitative Tightening.  It was a classic example of “buy the rumor, sell the news”.  The S&P500 dropped more than 1%, breaking below 3,000.  Should you panic?  I’m not.  I maintain the rationale that as long as the economy isn’t headed into aContinue reading “FED rate cut- Panic or Prosper?”