Is your ETF keeping up?

Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) can be an excellent way to invest.  But not all funds are created equal.  Some ETFs do a poor job of tracking the underlying asset or sector that they attempt to mimic. For example, last year West Texas Intermediate Oil appreciated over 100% yet the ETF that tracks it, USO, wasContinue reading “Is your ETF keeping up?”

Shorting OIL- transitory supply disruptions

Yesterday I initiated a position to short Oil via the ETF: DNO. Oil is nearing $50/barrel because of supply disruptions in western Canada (wildfires) and Nigeria (militant attacks).  I believe these circumstances to be transitory.  Systemic supply exceeds demand and it’s likely that Oil will fall back to its 50 or 100dma. Oil is tryingContinue reading “Shorting OIL- transitory supply disruptions”

It’s still all about Oil

Is the market about to make an all-time new high?  I remain skeptical. Ignore Q1 earnings announcements that will be trickling out over the next two weeks.  The slack in US and global economies is the result of two related factors:  Oil Glut & China Slowdown.  Neither of which are easily resolved. Note the belowContinue reading “It’s still all about Oil”

It took oil 23 years to exceed its nominal peak

Are you waiting for oil to bounce back to its peak of 2008?  You could be waiting a long time. In the below chart, I juxtaposed the price of oil from May 2004-Jan 2016 (in black, top section of chart) above the price of oil from Jan 1977-May 2004 (in gray, bottom section of chart).Continue reading “It took oil 23 years to exceed its nominal peak”