Post-election rally likely to fizzle

I don’t expect this post-election rally to last.  More than anything, I think the rally is a convergence of certainty, sector rotation and short covering.  The global economy is facing many critical issues, none of which will easily be fixed by one US president. Yes the economy will be spurred along by Trump’s likely taxContinue reading “Post-election rally likely to fizzle”

1968 Presidential Market Turmoil

In 1968 the country was in a mess: North Korea captured the USS Pueblo North Vietnam launched the Tet Offensive A sniper assassinated civil rights leader Dr. Martin Luther King Jr Civil Rights riots erupted across the country Democrat presidential candidate and Attorney General Robert Kennedy was assassinated Antiwar protests turned violent at the DemocratContinue reading “1968 Presidential Market Turmoil”

We’ve been here before

Stock prices tend to retrace their steps.  Much like lightning hitting the same spot. Note the below chart which compares S&P500 performance during the second quarter of 2015 (15Q2 green line), third quarter of 2015 (15Q3 red line) and the current quarter (16Q2 thick blue line). 15Q2 was characterized by an extremely stable range boundContinue reading “We’ve been here before”

Stimulus saves the day, for now

Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) set the market status as a Correction on January 4, 2016; that lasted for about three weeks until Tuesday’s weak follow-through day, when they felt the market was back in an Uptrend.  But then on Wednesday, IBD downgraded the situation to Uptrend Under Pressure, only to upgrade it again on Friday.Continue reading “Stimulus saves the day, for now”