Markets move in cycles. Emerging Markets are not only cyclical but also extremely volatile. Peak-to-trough swings of more than 30% are common. Cycles don’t repeat themselves, but they do rhyme. As commodity prices were collapsing in 2015-2016, Emerging Markets bottomed in February 2016. Pundits hysterically predicted that it would take a decade for extraction basedContinue reading “Emerging Market Cyclicality”
Tag Archives: Trade War
OIL breaks 20dma…
Note that in the first chart, the S&P500 generally correlates to the price of Oil, although Oil tends to be much more volatile. Oil’s quick and dramatic price fluctuations can often signal an abrupt change in the overall economic trend. Which takes us to the second chart…note that Oil has broken below its 20 dayContinue reading “OIL breaks 20dma…”
Volatility is back: watch the averages & RELAX
The Trade War saga continues. Markets are turbulent this week as China reneges on previous negotiation terms and Trump fires off feisty tweets How to handle the volatility? Watch the moving averages. a. S&P500 is about 1.5% away from breaking its 50 day moving average (dma). The fair value level is around its 100 orContinue reading “Volatility is back: watch the averages & RELAX”
Pruned Paired Trades
Today I made significant changes to 20% of the model portfolio. Paired trades (winners & losers) were sold in an effort to mitigate further risk and harvest some long term capital gains. The liquidation was spurred by this week’s unexpected resignation of Intel’s CEO and also the revelation that Starbucks’ sales are decelerating in China.Continue reading “Pruned Paired Trades”